To be honest with you, I feel like when the game picks the murderer / sheriff, I feel it is just random, even though you have these percentages.
Reasons why I think it’s random :
- sometimes I have a really high percentage of murderer or sheriff, and I still don’t get the role
- there was this one time where I was playing murder mystery with my friend where we were looking at each other’s percentages, and my friend got like 9.3 and I had 21.9 (for murderer role), and then my friend got murderer!
The only Reason why I think it’s not :
- I don’t think there has ever been a player who has gotten murderer or sheriff twice in a row
Can someone please explain to me how it works… 
I don’t get it…but for now I’m going to call it a random pick of who is murderer / sheriff.
Actually, I was once in a party with @anon7895885 and it was very funny once we saw that he got murderer twice in a row. It’s all a chance, anything is possible, for example, there is a really low chance that a coin falls on its side but it could happen but it’s a very rare case to encounter something like that.
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aa percentages
They might be really high, but due to the way Hive picks murderer and sheriff, if your murderer% < 50% you’re more likely to not get the rule than you are.
In the first game of MM ever, everyone had an ~6.3% to be both murderer and sheriff. Why is this? Every game completed (not leaving when the game is ongoing, and either dying or winning) since you’ve last been murderer/sheriff you get one Rx added to the default of one Rx. So of you haven’t been murderer for 15 games, and everyone else in the game was murderer the game they played before, your Rx for murderer would be 1(the default) + 15 = 16, and the other 15 players would have one. 16+151=31, so your percentage would be Rx/31100%=15/31*100%≈48,4%
From the total amount of murderer Rx, one random number gets chosen. The one with this number gets murderer, so you can essentially see murderer% as lottery tickets, you gaining one every time you’re not murderer and resetting to 1 when you get murderer. Ditto for sheriff%.
Removing those percentages would make it more likely for you to not be murderer for more games in a row. And remember, like I said before, you need more than half all the murderer Rx to be unlucky when you don’t get murderer.
And there are definitely plenty of people to be murderer twice in a row. If you’re murderer, there’s around a 1/136th chance you will be murderer again the next round. I myself have been murderer thrice in a row, which happens around every .003% of combinations of three games on average.
tl;dr
It’s a lottery, you might have the most tickets of any person but that doesn’t mean you’ll win
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Does anyone understand that maths on top or is it my brain just not working at 4 in the morning?
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Percentages are weird smh, it’s not just you
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I can understand now, it was very confusing for me at night and I didn’t wanna think
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Well, the percentages can either give you a good/bad chance of getting special roles in MM because maybe the thing that decides who is murderer/sheriff can be an RNG or something else that randomly selects a player and makes them murderer/sheriff.
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